Since march, an article "would rather send express delivery than into the factory?"Reports on the hot spots, and cause the attention of the two sessions on behalf of, despite the "labor shortage" "hire fee rises" problem, but the recent national relevant positive policy frequently, the negotiation effect is abate, the cotton market overall environment changing, pure cotton spot overall market performance strong, a small rise.
At present, what factors support the cotton spinning market?What are the concerns?
We will deepen VAT reform and cut the value-added tax rate by 3 percent
Deepen the VAT reform and reduce the current tax rate of 16% in manufacturing and other industries to 13%, which is expected to lower the cost for the later commodity prices.Some institutions estimate that it can save about 200 yuan per ton of costs for enterprises.On top of that, the bank's targeted RRR reduction, loan support for small and micro enterprises, reduction of electricity price for enterprises and other multi-directional beneficial policies can more realistically reduce the cash flow pressure of enterprises, improve the cash flow of enterprises, and inject new power into the guarantee and active market of enterprises.These moves have given the market the strength to recover.
Trade talks between China and the U.S.
The trade friction between China and the United States has lasted for nearly 10 months, and the market has gradually digested its impact. Various textile enterprises have their own strategies to deal with it. Domestic enterprises are basically running steadily, and only some enterprises with export business may be affected.It is understood that China's textile and garment import and export have been growing steadily for two consecutive years, but the export volume of textile and garment in February 2019 dropped by a large margin compared with the previous month.Some agencies said that may be affected by the Spring Festival holiday and enterprises to avoid the risk of imposing tariffs, may not reflect the recent real export situation.
Cotton futures new rules are expected to increase the level of activity
On March 4, zheng shang suo announced the revision of cotton and yarn futures business rules, which implemented measures such as the substantial expansion of deliverable subjects, the improvement of premium standard, and the shortening of warehouse receipt validity period.A professional analysis, the revision not only facilitates the enterprise to participate in the transaction, to meet the needs of enterprise diversification, but also to solve the problem of warehouse receipt funds occupied.The market is expected to further improve cotton futures business, cotton futures activity will continue to increase.
Printing and dyeing orders recovery prices
Since the beginning of march, guangdong, keqiao and other places continue to spread the news of the recovery of printing and dyeing factory, the market is relatively lively.Guangdong area of traders also said: "the recent slip up", printing and dyeing enterprises in fujian region after the Spring Festival of "price war" first shot ", despite the cost is a factor that cannot be ignored, but the market demand is less than supply, prices could also is a kind of market behavior, it also illustrates basic cloth market consumption level of activity.According to data from the national cotton market monitoring system, the cloth inventory of enterprises was 34.8 days, down 0.1 days from the previous month and 15.1 days from the previous year, which was at a low level in the recent three years.
The reform of cotton import quota is worth considering
In recent years, there are more and more voices about the reform of issuing cotton import quotas. At present, when the contradiction between cotton production and demand is gradually emerging, it is imperative to increase the effective supply of foreign cotton.With the decline of cotton reserve inventory, it is worth looking forward to and considering whether to issue additional quotas, take into account the needs of small and medium-sized textile enterprises when issuing quotas, and formulate a more effective quota implementation mechanism.
The conjecture of cotton reserve should not be over-interpreted
Recently, a variety of speculation about cotton reserve has emerged in the market, which reflects the market's recognition and reliance on the demand for cotton reserve and its regulatory policies.Small make up that whether or not round, cotton reserves to stabilize the role of the market will not change.From this perspective, there is no need to read too much into the various assumptions made about cotton reserves.
Did the spring of cotton spinning industry come as scheduled?
Domestic cotton yarn qualitative supply exceeds demand
Customs data show that in January 2019, the total import of pure cotton yarn is 156,100 tons.According to traders' pre-holiday ordering time and post-holiday arrival schedule, the total amount of cotton yarn imported in February was more than that in January.In addition, since the Spring Festival, the order recovery of weaving factory is relatively slow, the traditional peak season is not prosperous, and the current cotton yarn supply and demand pattern can be characterized as oversupply.
The comprehensive opening rate of domestic cotton yarn mills recovered to 56.9%, lower than the same period in 2018 (59.6%) and 2017 (61.5%). It is expected that the opening rate will still show a recovery trend from march to may, and the cotton yarn output and supply will still increase.
The supply of imported yarn will increase
The current import yarn port inventory is 75,100 tons, lower than the same period in 2018 (81,000 tons) and 2017 (95,000 tons).Although the current inventory can be targeted at a normal low level, due to traders' orders before the Spring Festival are concentrated in March to the port, the subsequent supply of imported yarn will continue to increase, and form a substitution and impact on domestic yarn.
It can be seen that the current cotton yarn market supply and demand pattern is still oversupply, gauze prices temporarily difficult to rise, industrial chain transmission in the blank link blocked, cotton yarn and cotton short-term replenishment.However, 2019 is the last year of a certain three-year implementation period for the target price of cotton in xinjiang, and how the target price will be set this year will have a profound impact on the development of cotton market in the future.It is believed that the policies to help the benign development of the cotton textile market will be gradually implemented to break the current situation. In the long run, the cotton textile industry is still worth looking forward to.