PTA price will increase

- Mar 18, 2019-

Currently, the macro benefits are concentrated in the following aspects: on March 12, leaders of the two sides of the high-level china-us economic and trade consultation talked with each other, the two sides held specific consultations on key issues of the text, the trend of china-us trade negotiations was getting better, and the probability of the two sides signing an agreement was increased in the later period, which boosted market confidence.China has more favorable policies for the real economy, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. We will pay close attention to the specific implementation time of tax cuts and fees reduction policies after the two sessions.

The upstream PX price is firm. Hengli's PX project may be put into trial operation in April, but its formal commercial operation may be in May to June.In the second quarter, there were a lot of PX maintenance in Asia, and the domestic PTA started to work at a high level, so the rigid demand for PX was stable. Zhongyu information speculated that the PX external price rose in a narrow range from march to April, which strengthened the support of PTA cost.In may, the maintenance of PX and PTA devices of fuhaichuang in China was planned, and the shutdown of PTA devices reduced the demand for PX. Therefore, the maintenance of PX devices of fuhaichuang had little effect on boosting the market.

The downstream rigid demand is stable. The polyester starting load in mid-march is around 86%, which is at a high stage. The PTA demand is expected to be better.From march to April, textile and printing and dyeing market demand enters the peak season. The good industrial chain demand upturn boosts the market from bottom to top. Polyester and terminal grey fabric once again embrace the destocking cycle.In the middle of march, polyester products are theoretically profitable, especially polyester POY, which has sustained losses before, has turned a profit. The cost pressure of polyester factory has decreased, and there may be more room for promotion.Zhongyu information that the overall polyester production and marketing in March and April pick up, boost PTA market confidence.

The uncertain factor of the market is whether the PTA plant is repaired as scheduled. From march to April, there are maintenance plans for the PTA plant of hengli, tongkun and zhuhai BP, but no specific maintenance date has been announced.Zhongyu information statistics: as of March 12, according to the PX daily outside price calculation, the PTA monthly average theoretical profit of 158 yuan/ton (according to 600 yuan/ton processing fee).If the price is based on $1,080 per ton of PX ACP in March, the profit of PTA production will be higher.The high profit of PTA leads to the variable of maintenance of PTA factory, and the possibility of delayed maintenance of PTA factory cannot be excluded.In addition, in the falling PTA futures market, the recent PTA plant failure was good for the market for a short time, but then the device quickly restarted or increased the load, resulting in the short PTA device unexpected good frequency, but also increased the uncertainty of the market.

Zhongyu information that short-term PTA aftermarket small shock, medium term hope macro good and terminal demand pick up, is expected to march to April after the narrow range.