During the qingming holiday, the ninth round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States concluded smoothly, the us non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and crude oil prices hit new highs.At the same time, domestic jiangsu "March 21" special major explosion accident has the latest development, xiangshui chemical park will be completely closed.On the other hand, PTA device maintenance into trouble, still confusing.
As the holiday comes to an end, after the qingming festival, how will the chemical fiber market?
The ninth round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States has concluded smoothly, with the non-farm payrolls data exceeding expectations
Qingming holiday, the international market macro news worthy of market attention.On the one hand, U.S. nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, with the labor department saying on Friday that employers added 196,000 jobs in March, beating forecasts for 177,000. The march unemployment rate was 3.8 percent, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
On the other hand, the ninth round of china-us economic and trade consultations has sent a powerful signal.According to xinhua news agency, the latest round of consultations was productive, with new consensus reached on important issues including the text of the economic and trade agreement. The two sides discussed the text of the agreement on technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff measures, services, agriculture, trade balance and implementation mechanism, and made new progress.
Second, the performance of the commodity market is remarkable: cloth oil broke through $70 / BBL
Financial markets also got a boost amid improving macroeconomic conditions.On Friday, U.S. and European stock markets rose to their highest level in six months, with U.S. energy stocks closing up 0.55 percent, exxonmobil up 0.28 percent, chevron up 1.28 percent, conocophillips up 1.46 percent, schrenberger up 2.04 percent and EOG energy up 5.31 percent.
Commodity markets have also done well.Both oil and oil prices rose more than 1 percent, with oil above $70 a barrel and oil above $63 a barrel, both continuing their highs from November.
As the source of chemical industry chain, the rising oil price will support the overall price of chemical fiber products.
"From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the rebound of the whole chemical products is largely affected by the rise in the price of crude oil on the cost side. During the qingming holiday, the international crude oil price rose by nearly 2%, and the support of the cost side for the product price will be more significant.Jinshi futures analyst huang liqiang believes that from the current situation of supply and demand, with the arrival of the consumption season, chemical inventory is expected to decline, supply and demand situation will be further improved, superposition upstream crude oil prices, the price trend of the whole variety will show a strong trend.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, the energy and chemical industry sector has been continuously concerned by the market.On the other hand, the successive outbreak of safety accidents, so that chemical varieties are now in dire straits.
Three, jiangsu shuttered the xiangshui chemical industry park completely, to the chemical fiber market influence geometry?
It is reported that at the end of march, a chemical plant accident occurred in jiangsu xiangshui ecological park, and then kunshan, jiangsu, taixing two places, respectively, on March 31 and April 3 have explosions, jiangsu province also immediately launched a large-scale chemical enterprises and chemical park safety production investigation, the big renovation action.
A meeting of the standing committee of the communist party of China (CPC) central committee in yancheng, jiangsu province, said Wednesday that the xiangshui chemical industrial park will be completely closed, xinhua news agency reported.
Jiangsu xiangshui chemical industry park has been completely closed. At present, the chemical industry market is in a panic and fluctuates violently.Analysts expect the afternoon rally to continue for a long time.
Several chemical industry analysts believe that in the long term, the explosion will have an impact on the whole chemical industry, related safety checks will be strengthened, the supply side will be affected to a large extent.From the perspective of subdivision, it directly affects the supply of chemical fiber raw materials and dyestuff industry, leading to the price increase of related products and the supply imbalance.
1. Double the price of pure MDI for spandex raw materials
March 28, wanhua chemical April polymerization MDI price will be significantly increased again.The listed price of wanhua chemical in China's polymerization MDI distribution market is 17,800 yuan/ton (2,600 yuan/ton higher than the march price), and the listed price in the direct market is 18,300 yuan/ton (2,800 yuan/ton higher than the march price).Pure MDI is listed at 26,200 yuan/ton (up 1,500 yuan/ton from march).This is the third price hike for wanhua chemical MDI since the start of 2019.
According to relevant data, solstice on December 25, 2018 and March 25, 2019, the price of aggregated MDI dealers in east China increased from 11,575 yuan to more than 15,000 yuan within three months.Wanhua chemical also reported three quarters, the company has 8 billion yuan of inventory.
2, dye prices rose sharply
With the substantial increase of upstream raw material MDI, at present, polyurethane TPU and other products also have a follow up effect due to the rising cost. Shanghai hengan polyurethane co., ltd. recently issued the notice, saying: from March 28, 2019, the price of various brands of hengan polyurethane products will be increased by 1000 yuan/ton.
Compared with the impact of the jiangsu explosion on wanhua chemical, a number of dye intermediate enterprises is the most direct bearing, after the launch of a national safety inspection, some areas will face emergency shutdown.
Up to now, thousands of enterprises in henan province, zhejiang province, jinhua city, yancheng city, suzhou city, suqian city, weifang city, dongguan and other seven regions have implemented the policy.The major impact of the accident and the emergency shutdown of some enterprises led to the market dye and some of its raw materials prices rose sharply.As the "largest" m-phenylenediamine supplier in the industry, zhejiang longsheng recently increased its price by the limit of 4 days and 3 days due to the increase in the price of the core intermediate m-phenylenediamine.
It is understood that since the "March 21" explosion accident in jiangsu province, not only the dye has been affected, but also the printing and dyeing, which is the most important part of the textile port, has borne the brunt. Some of the scarce products have affected the prices of resins, adhesives and pesticides.Some manufacturers stopped quoting.
Four, PTA into trouble, device maintenance is still confusing
At the same time, at the end of the month and the beginning of April, domestic PTA plant equipment maintenance news flying around, make PTA experience "roller coaster" market.PTA into trouble at present, device maintenance is still confusing.
1. Maintenance of constant force PTA device
March 28, hengli a set of 2.2 million tons of equipment scheduled maintenance, the news, quiet in the weak market PTA, the market ushered in a wave of small rebound.Spot at east China main port increased from 6,450 yuan/ton to 6,640 yuan/ton, up by 2.86%.The rally lasted three business days.
2. Delayed maintenance plan of yizheng and fuhaichuang PTA devices
April 2, yizheng petrochemical 650,000 tons PTA device originally planned to June maintenance for 15 days, the current delay plan;At the same time, the original plan of the 4.5 million ton PTA plant of fuhai chuang was to overhaul it in May for half a month, but the plan has been postponed.Two news out, PTA end early rising trend, began to turn down.Spot at east China main port dropped from 6,640 yuan/ton to 6,420 yuan/ton, down 3.43%.The decline lasted two business days.
3. Partial PTA factories announce maintenance plan
On the morning of April 4, hengli petrochemical announced the plan to overhaul the 2.2 million ton PTA plant of line 1 for 15 days on April 15.Jiaxing petrochemical company plans to overhaul a 2.2-million-ton unit on April 8 for 15-20 days.As soon as this news came out, PTA market began to rebound again, but the rebound strength was small, the spot price of east China main port rose from 6420 yuan/ton to 6480 yuan/ton.
4. The overhaul plan of fuhai innovation device is implemented as scheduled
In the afternoon of April 4, the company announced that 4.5 million tons of PTA device was out of stock due to condensate oil in May. At first, the maintenance plan was implemented as scheduled in May. As soon as the news came out, PTA market soared sharply.
It is understood that from April to may domestic PTA plant device maintenance concentration, supply expected to reduce, at the same time downstream polyester demand is good, the market has good support, short-term PTA spot market or maintain high shock;However, the new production of raw material PX is still suppressed in the market, so there may be weakness in the medium and long term.